Mu gihe isi ikomeje gukurikiranira hafi ubushyamirane bukomeye hagati ya Iran n’ibihugu bifite imbaraga za gisirikare ku isi, birimo Amerika na Israel, isesengura rigaragaza ko Tehran yahisemo inzira itari isanzwe mu guhangana n’abo bahanganye—inzira ishingiye ku mayeri kurusha gukoresha imbaraga za gisirikare zisanzwe.
N’ubwo Amerika na Israel bifite ikoranabuhanga rihanitse n’ingabo zikomeye, Iran yo yahisemo gukoresha uburyo buzwi nka ‘asymmetric warfare’ (intambara idahuje imbaraga), bugamije kurushya umwanzi no kumushyira mu bihe bimutera kunanirwa gukomeza urugamba.
Amayeri atandukanye n’ay’ibihangange
Inzobere mu bya gisirikare zigaragaza ko Iran izi neza ko idashobora guhangana imbonankubone na Amerika cyangwa Israel mu ntambara isanzwe.
Ibi byatumye ihitamo gukoresha uburyo bwo gutera aho umwanzi afite intege nke aho kumurwanya mu buryo butaziguye.
Muri ayo mayeri, Iran yibanze ku gukoresha drones zihendutse ariko nyinshi, missiles zoherezwa mu bwinshi, ndetse n’ibitero bitunguranye kandi bihindagurika.
N’ubwo ibi bikoresho bidahenze nk’iby’ibihugu bikomeye, bishobora gutuma umwanzi akoresha amafaranga menshi mu kwirwanaho, bityo intambara ikamuhenda cyane kurushaho.
Intambara yagutse mu karere
Ikindi kintu gikomeye cyafashije Iran ni ukwagura aho intambara ibera. Yifashishije imitwe iyishyigikiye mu bihugu bitandukanye byo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, harimo Liban, Iraq na Yemen.
Ibi bituma intambara itaba ahantu hamwe gusa, ahubwo igakwirakwira mu bice byinshi icyarimwe.
Ku ruhande rwa Amerika na Israel, ibi bisaba gukoresha imbaraga nyinshi mu guhangana n’ibitero biturutse impande zitandukanye, bigatuma ubushobozi bwazo busaranganywa kandi bugacika intege.
Gukoresha igitutu cy’ubukungu ku rwego mpuzamahanga
Iran ntiyagarukiye ku rugamba rwa gisirikare gusa, ahubwo yanakoresheje uburyo bwo gushyira igitutu ku bukungu bw’isi.
Aha by’umwihariko hibanzwe ku nyanja ya Hormuz, inzira inyuramo igice kinini cya peteroli icuruzwa ku isi. Ihungabana ry’iyi nzira ryatumye ibiciro bya peteroli bizamuka, ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga burakomereka, ndetse n’ibihugu byinshi bitangira gushyira igitutu cya dipolomasi ku mpande ziri mu makimbirane.
Ibi byerekana ko Iran yashoboye kwimura urugamba ikarugeza no ku rwego rw’ubukungu, bityo igashyira igitutu ku isi yose, atari ku rugamba gusa.
Ingamba zo kuramba mu ntambara
Nubwo Iran yahuye n’ibitero bikomeye byangije ibikorwa remezo bimwe na bimwe, amakuru agaragaza ko igifite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza urugamba igihe kirekire.
Ibi birimo ububiko bunini bwa missiles na drones, ndetse n’uburyo bwo kubihisha mu nyubako ziri munsi y’ubutaka kugira ngo bitagerwaho n’ibitero by’indege. Ibi bigaragaza ko intego ya Iran atari gutsinda byihuse, ahubwo ari ugukomeza kurwana igihe kirekire, gutuma intambara ihenda cyane abayirwanya, no kubahatira gushaka inzira y’ibiganiro.
Dipolomasi nk’inyongera ku rugamba
Mu gihe imirwano ikomeje, hagaragaye no kongera imbaraga mu biganiro bya dipolomasi hagati ya Iran na Amerika.
Abasesenguzi bemeza ko amayeri ya Iran yo gutinza no kurushya umwanzi ashobora kuba ari yo atuma igera ku meza y’ibiganiro ifite ijambo rikomeye kurushaho.
Isomo ku isi
Ibi bibazo byerekana isomo rikomeye ku isi: gutsinda intambara si ko buri gihe bishingira ku mbaraga gusa.
Iran yerekanye ko amayeri ashobora kurusha imbaraga, ko kwihangana bishobora kurusha ikoranabuhanga, ndetse n’uko intambara ishobora gutsindwa n’igiciro cyayo.
Muri make, n’ubwo Iran ishobora kuba itaratsinze mu buryo bugaragara, ntinatsinzwe, kuko yakomeje kwihagararaho imbere y’ibihugu bikomeye, igaragaza ko mu ntambara z’iki gihe, ubwenge n’ingamba bishobora kugira uruhare rungana cyangwa rurenze urw’imbaraga za gisirikare.
