Mu gihe Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi (EU) uri kuganira ku guhagarika cyangwa kudasubizaho inkunga yahaga ingabo z’u Rwanda ziri mu butumwa bwo gucunga umutekano muri Mozambike, haribazwa ibibazo bikomeye ku hazaza h’umutekano wa Cabo Delgado ndetse n’ishoramari rinini rya sosiyete y’Abafaransa Total Energies.
Iyi nkunga yatangwaga binyuze muri gahunda ya European Peace Facility, yafashaga mu bikoresho bya gisirikare, ubwikorezi n’imikorere y’ingabo z’u Rwanda zoherejwe muri Cabo Delgado kuva mu 2021.
U Rwanda rwashimwe cyane nyuma yo gufasha gusubiza inyuma imitwe yitwaje intwaro yari yarigaruriye ibice byinshi birimo Palma hafi y’aho umushinga wa gaz wa Total Energies uri.
Impamvu EU iri guhagarika inkunga
Iki cyemezo kiri guhuzwa cyane n’igitutu cya politiki gikomeje kwiyongera ku Rwanda kubera ikibazo cya M23 mu burasirazuba bwa RDC.
Hari impungenge mu bihugu bimwe by’i Burayi bivuga ko amafaranga yaterwaga inkunga ibikorwa byo kurwanya iterabwoba muri Mozambike ashobora kuba afasha mu buryo buziguye ibikorwa bya gisirikare mu karere ka Congo.
Nubwo hari ayo makimbirane ya dipolomasi, bamwe mu bayobozi ba EU bavuga ko guhagarika inkunga bidakwiye gukorwa mu buryo bwihuse kuko ingabo z’u Rwanda ari zo zikomeje kuba inkingi y’umutekano wa Cabo Delgado.
U Rwanda rwaba rushobora kuva muri Mozambike?
Abakurikiranira hafi iki kibazo bavuga ko niba inkunga ihagaze burundu kandi nta bundi buryo bwo kuyisimbura bubonetse, u Rwanda rushobora kugabanya ingabo zarwo cyangwa rugashyiraho igitutu cyo kuva muri Mozambike.
Minisiteri y’Ububanyi n’Amahanga y’u Rwanda yamaze gutanga ibimenyetso by’uko Kigali itazemera gukomeza kurinda inyungu z’amahanga idafite inkunga ihagije.
Kuvuga ko u Rwanda rwava muri Cabo Delgado ntabwo ari ikibazo cya dipolomasi gusa; ni ikibazo cy’umutekano mpuzamahanga.
Ingabo za Mozambike ziracyashinjwa intege nke zirimo ibikoresho bike, ibibazo by’imishahara n’ubushobozi buke bwo kurwanya imitwe y’iterabwoba.
Abasesenguzi ba Institute for Security Studies bavuga ko kuva muri Cabo Delgado kw’ingabo z’u Rwanda byasiga icyuho gikomeye cy’umutekano, cyane cyane nyuma y’uko ingabo za SADC na zo zagabanyije ibikorwa muri ako karere.
Total Energies iri mu kangaratete
Umushinga wa LNG wa TotalEnergies ufite agaciro karenga miliyari 20 z’amadolari ni umwe mu mishinga minini ya gaz muri Afurika.
Gusa ibikorwa byawo byigeze guhagarikwa nyuma y’ibitero bikomeye byabereye Palma mu 2021. Umutekano wazanywe n’ingabo z’u Rwanda ni wo watumye uyu mushinga wongera gutegurwa gusubukurwa.
Niba umutekano wongera kuzamba, ibikorwa bya Total bishobora kongera guhagarara cyangwa gutinda imyaka myinshi.
Ibyo byagira ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bwa Mozambike ndetse no ku nyungu z’u Bufaransa n’ibihugu by’i Burayi byari byitezweho kubona gaz iva muri Afurika mu gihe isi ishaka kugabanya kwishingikiriza kuri gaz yo mu Burusiya n’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Mozambike ishobora kwisanga mu mutego mushya
Hari impungenge ko Cabo Delgado ishobora kongera kuba indiri y’imitwe ifitanye isano na ISIS niba ingabo z’u Rwanda zigabanyije ibikorwa cyangwa zikavayo.
Raporo zitandukanye zigaragaza ko nubwo imitwe y’iterabwoba yasubijwe inyuma, itaracika burundu kandi ikomeje kugaba ibitero bya hato na hato.
Ibi bishobora gutuma Mozambike irushaho kwishingikiriza ku bihugu by’amahanga, cyane cyane Amerika cyangwa ibigo byigenga by’umutekano, ibintu bishobora kongera ubukana bw’ihangana ry’ibihugu bikomeye ku mutungo kamere wa Afurika.
Nsoza, ikibazo cya EU n’u Rwanda muri Mozambike kirenze kure ikibazo cy’inkunga gusa. Ni ihuriro ry’umutekano, politiki n’inyungu z’ubukungu z’ibihugu bikomeye. Mu gihe Brussels ishaka gushyira igitutu kuri Kigali kubera Congo, ifite n’undi mutwaro wo kurinda inyungu zayo za gaz muri Cabo Delgado.
Niba nta gisubizo cya dipolomasi kibonetse, Mozambike ishobora kwisanga hagati y’umutekano muke, iterabwoba ryo ku rwego rwo hejuru, n’ishoramari rya miliyari z’amadolari riri mu kaga.
