Understanding the Roots of the Russia–Ukraine War – Part 2

In Part 1, we explored the shared history between Russia and Ukraine. Now, we focus on how President Vladimir Putin long prepared for this conflict, and where he turned his efforts.

• Gas pipelines and NATO encroachment:
  In 2015, as war simmered in Donetsk and Luhansk, NATO and Europe courted Kyiv.
  In 2017, Putin built the TurkStream pipeline through the Black Sea to Turkey to bypass Ukraine—cutting off gas transit fees to Kyiv.
  In 2018, he launched Nord Stream 2 under the Baltic Sea to Germany, welcomed by Angela Merkel as it delivered cheaper gas, boosting Germany’s industry.

• Crimea bridge and naval control:
  These strategic projects, plus the Crimea bridge, positioned Putin against NATO’s perceived threat to Moscow.

• Azov Sea flashpoint:
  Since 2003, Moscow and Kyiv had agreements to share Azov Sea access via Mariupol and Crimea. In 2018 Russia scrapped them. Ukrainian ships soon sought permission to pass, but were blocked—three Ukrainian military vessels were seized by Russia for alleged violations.

• Zelensky’s presidency and NATO desires:
  Elected in 2019, President Volodymyr Zelensky sought peace and released the vessels. But he pulled closer to NATO, provoking Putin.

• Russian troop build-up:
  In 2021, Putin massed forces on Ukraine’s border and in Belarus, warning against Ukraine joining NATO. In 2022, NATO responded that sovereign nations may choose alliances. Russia sent 30 battalions into Belarus and 190,000 troops toward Ukraine.

• Putin’s historic speech (Feb 2022):
  He claimed Ukraine was historically part of Russia, criticized foreign border redraws, and accused Ukraine of genocide against Russian-speakers. He recognized Donetsk and Luhansk independence, then launched a “special operation” on February 24, 2022.

• The invasion plan:
  Three thrusts:

  1. Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk/Luhansk)

  2. Southern route toward Kherson

  3. Northern thrust from Belarus toward Kyiv
     The goal: capture Zelensky, install a pro-Russian government, confirm Crimea’s annexation, and secure Donetsk/Luhansk.

• Western sanctions and economic resilience:
  In response, the West imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil, gas, and airspace. But Russia had pre-shored gas sales to Asia—lessening impact.

• Ukrainian counterattacks:
  In 2024 Ukraine struck Russian territory near Kursk—but Russia retook that ground early this year.

• Trump’s peace proposal:
  Former US President Donald Trump said he could have ended the war quickly, proposing a deal allowing Russian control over annexed regions and financial aid to Ukraine—to remain non-NATO.

• Human and economic toll:
  Russia may have lost 100,000–250,000 troops, with 700,000 wounded. Ukraine lost ~46,000 soldiers and 300,000 wounded.
  The UN says 10 million Ukrainians (~¼ population) fled to Europe.
  Ukraine’s NATO bid remains stalled, but Sweden and Finland joined NATO—its main gain.