Mu gihe ibihugu bikomeye by’isi byari bihanganye mu Ntambara y’Ubutita, igihugu cya Koreya ya Ruguru cyatangiye bucece gahunda yatumye nyuma y’imyaka mike kiba kimwe mu bihugu bike bifite intwaro kirimbuzi ku Isi.
Uyu munsi, ubutegetsi bwa Pyongyang buyobowe na Kim Jong-un bufite ibisasu kirimbuzi na misile ndende zishobora kugera kure cyane, ibintu byatumye isi ihora ihangayikishijwe n’umutekano wa Aziya ndetse n’uw’isi muri rusange.
Ariko ikibazo gikomeje kwibazwa ni iki: igihugu cyanyuze mu nzara, ubwigunge n’ibihano bikomeye by’ubukungu cyageze gute ku rwego rwo kubaka intwaro zikomeye kurusha iz’ibihugu byinshi bikize?
Intangiriro z’umushinga wa kirimbuzi
Urugendo rwa Koreya ya Ruguru ku ntwaro kirimbuzi rwatangiye nyuma y’Intambara ya Koreya yo mu myaka ya 1950, igihe ubutegetsi bwa Kim Il-sung bwatangiraga kubona ko igihugu gishobora guhora kibangamiwe na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’abo bafatanyije.
Muri icyo gihe, igihugu cyari gifite ubufasha bukomeye bw’icyahoze ari Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abasoviyeti, cyafashije Pyongyang kubaka ubushobozi bwa siyansi, amahugurwa y’inzobere ndetse n’ibikorwaremezo by’ingufu kirimbuzi.
Nubwo gahunda yavugwaga nk’iy’amahoro, abasesenguzi benshi bavuga ko kuva kera ubuyobozi bwa Pyongyang bwari bumaze gufata umwanzuro wo kuzagira ubushobozi bwa gisirikare bukomeye bwo kwirwanaho.
Politiki ya “Juche” n’ubwigunge bwabaye imbaraga
Kimwe mu byafashije Koreya ya Ruguru ni politiki yayo yo kwigira no kudategereza amahanga.
Politiki ya “Juche”, yashyizwe imbere na Kim Il-sung, yashimangiraga ko igihugu kigomba kwiyubakira ubushobozi bwacyo mu bya gisirikare, ubukungu n’ikoranabuhanga.
Mu gihe ibihugu byinshi byari byishingikirije ku bucuruzi mpuzamahanga, Pyongyang yo yubakaga inganda, laboratwari n’ibigo bya gisirikare bikorera mu ibanga rikomeye.
Ubwigunge bwa Koreya ya Ruguru bwatumye amahanga atamenya neza aho gahunda yayo ya kirimbuzi igeze kugeza igihe yari imaze gutera imbere cyane.
Uko Pyongyang yanyuze mu bihano
Mu myaka ya 1990, nyuma y’uko ibikorwa bikekwa ko bifitanye isano na gahunda ya kirimbuzi bibonetse i Yongbyon, Koreya ya Ruguru yatangiye gufatirwa ibihano bikomeye n’Umuryango w’Abibumbye na Amerika.
Ariko aho ibyo bihano byari kuyica intege, Pyongyang yabihinduye uburyo bwo gukomeza kubaho.
Ubutegetsi bwa Koreya ya Ruguru bwakoresheje inzira zitandukanye zirimo ubucuruzi bw’intwaro mu ibanga, gukoresha imiyoboro y’imari inyura mu bindi bihugu, ibikorwa byo kwinjirira amabanki n’ibigo by’imari hakoreshejwe ikoranabuhanga ndetse n’ubufatanye bw’ibanga n’abashakaga inyungu za gisirikare.
Hari kandi raporo zagiye zigaragaza uruhare rw’inzobere zo mu bindi bihugu zagize uruhare mu kugeza ubumenyi bwa kirimbuzi kuri Pyongyang, nubwo byinshi bikorwa mu bwiru bukomeye.
Amerika yaba yaratinze gufata ikibazo nk’icyihutirwa?
Abasesenguzi benshi bagaragaza ko Washington yakoze amakosa menshi mu buryo yafashe ikibazo cya Koreya ya Ruguru.
Mu 1994, habaye amasezerano azwi nka “Agreed Framework”, aho Pyongyang yemeye guhagarika bimwe mu bikorwa bya kirimbuzi mu gusubizwa inkunga n’amashanyarazi. Ariko ayo masezerano yaje gusenyuka kubera kutizerana hagati y’impande zombi.
Nyuma yaho, Koreya ya Ruguru yakomeje ibikorwa byayo mu ibanga kugeza igihe amahanga yavumburaga ko gahunda yayo igeze kure.
Hari abavuga kandi ko Amerika yari yaribanze cyane ku ntambara zo muri Irak na Afghanistan, bituma ikibazo cya Koreya ya Ruguru gihabwa umwanya muto kugeza igihe cyabereye ikibazo gikomeye ku mutekano mpuzamahanga.
Kim Jong-un yahinduye umuvuduko
Ubwo Kim Jong-un yageraga ku butegetsi mu 2011, benshi batekerezaga ko azashyira imbere ubukungu no kwiyunga n’amahanga.
Ariko ibinyuranye ni byo byabaye.
Mu gihe cy’ubutegetsi bwe, Koreya ya Ruguru yakoze igerageza ry’ibisasu byinshi ndetse inerekana misile ndende zishobora kugera muri Amerika.
Kwamamaza izo ntwaro byahindutse uburyo bwo kwereka isi ko Pyongyang itakiri igihugu gishobora kwirengagizwa cyangwa gushyirwaho igitutu byoroshye.
Intwaro kirimbuzi nk’ubwishingizi bw’ubutegetsi
Ku buyobozi bwa Koreya ya Ruguru, intwaro kirimbuzi si ikibazo cya gisirikare gusa, ahubwo ni uburyo bwo kurinda ubutegetsi.
Pyongyang yarebye ibyabaye kuri Saddam Hussein muri Iraq na Muammar Gaddafi muri Libya, aho ubutegetsi bwabo bwaje guhirikwa nyuma yo kutagira ubushobozi bwa gisirikare bwo kuburinda.
Ibyo byatumye Koreya ya Ruguru ibona ko kugira igisasu kirimbuzi ari bwo buryo bwonyine bwo gukumira igitero icyo ari cyo cyose cy’amahanga.
Ese isi ishobora guhagarika Pyongyang?
Uyu munsi, amahanga menshi yemera ko guhagarika burundu gahunda ya kirimbuzi ya Koreya ya Ruguru byagoye cyane kurusha mbere.
Nubwo ibihano bikomeje, Pyongyang iracyakora igerageza rya misile kandi ikomeje kongera ubushobozi bwayo bwa gisirikare.
Ubu ikibazo si ukumenya niba hari ushobora kuyihagarika, ahubwo ni uburyo bwo gucunga icyo kibazo kugira ngo hatazagira intambara cyangwa ikosa rya gisirikare ryakurura akaga ku isi.
Mu gihe Amerika, Koreya y’Epfo n’u Buyapani bikomeje kongera ubufatanye bwa gisirikare, Pyongyang nayo ikomeza kohereza ubutumwa ko itazigera ireka intwaro kirimbuzi zayo.
Ibi bivuze ko urugendo rwa Koreya ya Ruguru ku ntwaro kirimbuzi rutahinduye gusa ubutegetsi bwa Pyongyang, ahubwo rwahinduye n’imiterere y’umutekano mpuzamahanga muri iki kinyejana cya 21.
