Mu gihe intambara hagati y’u Burusiya na Ukraine igiye kuzuza imyaka irenga ine, ibikorwa bya gisirikare byabaye mu mpera za Gicurasi 2026 byongeye kwerekana ko iyi ntambara ikiri kure yo kurangira. Ibitero bikomeye Moscow yagabye kuri Kyiv n’indi mijyi ya Ukraine byasize bibajijwe byinshi ku cyerekezo cy’urugamba, ubushobozi bw’impande zihanganye ndetse n’uruhare ikoranabuhanga rikomeje kugira muri iyi ntambara.
Abasesenguzi benshi bemeza ko ibiri kuba muri iki gihe bishobora kuba ari intangiriro y’icyiciro gishya cy’urugamba, aho drones, missiles zirasa kure n’ubutasi bwifashisha ikoranabuhanga bikomeje gusimbura uburyo bwa gisirikare bwari busanzwe bushingiye ku bifaru n’ingabo nyinshi ziri ku butaka.
Kyiv yongeye kwibasirwa n’ibitero bikomeye
Mu ijoro ryo ku wa 23 rishyira ku wa 24 Gicurasi, u Burusiya bwagabye kimwe mu bitero bikomeye byabayeho mu mezi ya vuba. Raporo zitandukanye zigaragaza ko hakoreshwejwe missiles nyinshi hamwe na drones amagana byagabwe ku murwa mukuru Kyiv no mu tundi duce twa Ukraine.
Abaturage bo muri Kyiv bamaze amasaha menshi mu buhungiro nyuma y’uko sirene zimenyesha ibyago zitangiye kuvuza ubudahagarara. Mu bice bitandukanye by’umujyi habonetse inkongi z’umuriro, inyubako zangirika ndetse bamwe mu baturage bahasiga ubuzima abandi barakomereka.
Perezida wa Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, yavuze ko ibi bitero bigamije guca intege abaturage no kwangiza ibikorwa remezo by’igihugu kugira ngo Ukraine icike intege.
Ku ruhande rwa Moscow, abayobozi bavuga ko ibitero byagabwe ku bikorwa bifitanye isano n’igisirikare cya Ukraine, kandi ko ari igisubizo ku bitero bya drones Ukraine ikomeje kugaba imbere mu Burusiya.
Drones ziri guhindura isura y’intambara
Kimwe mu bintu bikomeje gukurura amaso y’abakurikirana iyi ntambara ni uruhare rwa drones.
Mu myaka ya mbere y’intambara, impande zombi zashingiraga cyane ku bifaru, indege za gisirikare n’ibisasu bya misile. Ubu ariko ibintu byarahindutse. Drones zabaye intwaro y’ibanze ku mpande zombi.
Ukraine ikomeje gukoresha drones nyinshi kandi zihendutse mu kwibasira inganda za gisirikare, ibigo bya peteroli n’ibindi bikorwa remezo biri imbere mu Burusiya. Ni uburyo bwatumye ishobora kugera kure kurusha uko byari byitezwe mu ntangiriro z’intambara.
Mu gusubiza, u Burusiya na bwo bwatangiye gukoresha drones zigezweho kurushaho. Hari amakuru avuga ko drones nshya zifite umuvuduko mwinshi kandi zikaba zigora cyane uburyo bwo kuzihagarika.
Abahanga mu bya gisirikare bavuga ko Ukraine yahindutse laboratwari y’intambara z’igihe kizaza, aho ikoranabuhanga riri kugeragerezwamo ku rugero rutigeze rubaho mbere.
U Burusiya buri gukoresha intambara yo kunaniza
Nubwo ibitero byakajijwe, hari abasesenguzi bavuga ko intego ya Kremlin atari ugufata Kyiv mu buryo bwihuse.
Ahubwo ngo Moscow iri gukoresha uburyo buzwi nka “war of attrition”, cyangwa intambara yo kunaniza umwanzi buhoro buhoro.
Muri ubu buryo, ibikorwa remezo by’ingufu n’amashanyarazi bikomeza kwibasirwa, ubwirinzi bwo mu kirere bugashyirwa ku gitutu gihoraho, abaturage na bo bagahora mu bwoba.
Ibi bituma igihugu gihora gikoresha amafaranga menshi mu bwirinzi no gusana ibikorwa byangiritse, ibintu bishobora kugabanya ubushobozi bwacyo bwo gukomeza urugamba mu gihe kirekire.
Ukraine na yo ikomeje kwagura urugamba imbere mu Burusiya
Nubwo Ukraine iri guhangana n’ibitero bikomeye, na yo ikomeje gusubiza.
Mu mezi ashize, drones za Ukraine zakomeje kugera kure imbere mu Burusiya, zigatera ibigo bya peteroli, inganda za gisirikare n’ibindi bikorwa bifatiye runini ubukungu bw’icyo gihugu.
Hari ibitero byageze no hafi ya Moscow, ibintu byari bigoye gutekereza mu myaka ya mbere y’intambara.
Ibi byatumye ibihugu bimwe byo mu Burayi, cyane cyane ibihana imbibi n’u Burusiya, bitangira kongera kwita ku mutekano wabyo bwo mu kirere no ku buryo byahangana n’ibitero bya drones mu gihe byakenera kubikora.
Belarus ikomeje gukurikiranwa
Mu gihe intambara ikomeza gufata indi ntera, amaso akomeje no ku ruhare rwa Belarus.
Nubwo icyo gihugu kitarinjira ku rugamba mu buryo butaziguye, gikomeje gufatwa nk’umufatanyabikorwa wa hafi wa Moscow.
Ibihugu byo muri NATO bikomeje gukurikirana ibikorwa bya gisirikare biri ku butaka bwa Belarus, cyane cyane ibijyanye n’ibibuga by’indege, imyitozo ya gisirikare n’ibikoresho by’intambara bishobora gukoreshwa mu gushyigikira u Burusiya.
Diplomasi ikomeje gusubira inyuma
Mu gihe ibikorwa bya gisirikare bikomeza gukaza umurego, icyizere cy’ibiganiro by’amahoro kiragenda kigabanuka.
Nubwo Amerika n’abafatanyabikorwa bayo bakomeje kuvuga ko bashyigikiye inzira y’ibiganiro, ibikorwa biri ku rugamba bigaragaza ko nta ruhande rurimo gutekereza kugabanya umurego w’intambara muri iki gihe.
Ku ruhande rwa Perezida Vladimir Putin, gukaza ibitero bishobora kuba uburyo bwo kongera imbaraga za Moscow mbere y’ibiganiro bishya bishobora kuzaba mu bihe biri imbere.
Ku ruhande rwa Perezida Zelenskyy na we, gukomeza guhangana n’ibyo bitero ni uburyo bwo kwerekana ko Ukraine itazemera gutsindwa cyangwa gutanga ubutaka bwayo.
Ese intambara iri kwinjira mu gihe gishya?
Ikigaragara ni uko intambara ya Ukraine itakiri nk’iyo isi yabonye mu 2022.
Uyu munsi, drones, ibyogajuru, intelligence ishingiye ku ikoranabuhanga na missiles zirasa kure biri kugira uruhare runini kurusha ibifaru n’ingabo nyinshi ziri ku rugamba.
Ibi bishobora guhindura uburyo intambara zo mu gihe kizaza zizaba ziteye, kuko igihugu gifite ubushobozi bwo gukora no gukoresha drones nyinshi gishobora kugira akamaro kurusha igifite ibikoresho bya gisirikare bihenze gusa.
Ariko kandi, uko ikoranabuhanga rigenda ritera imbere ni ko n’abaturage basanzwe bagenda barushaho gushyirwa mu kaga, kuko ibitero bishobora kugera kure kandi bikagabwa igihe icyo ari cyo cyose.
Kugeza ubu, ikibazo gikomeye gikomeje kubazwa ni kimwe: ese uku gukaza ibitero ni intangiriro y’icyerekezo kigana ku musozo w’intambara, cyangwa ni ikimenyetso cy’uko ishobora gukomeza indi myaka myinshi?
Nta gisubizo gifatika kiraboneka. Gusa ikizwi ni uko intambara hagati y’u Burusiya na Ukraine ikomeje guhindura amategeko y’intambara z’iki gihe, mu gihe abaturage basanzwe bakomeje kwishyura igiciro kinini kurusha abandi bose.
