Mu Burasirazuba bwa Repububulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo, agahenge kabaho ku mpapuro kurusha uko kabaho ku kibuga cy’imirwano.
Mu mezi ashize, ikibazo cy’umutekano mu Burasirazuba bwa Congo cyinjiye mu cyiciro gishya cya dipolomasi mpuzamahanga. I Washington, Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zakomeje guhuza Kinshasa na Kigali ku rwego rw’ibihugu byombi.
I Doha, Qatar yakomeje kwakira ibiganiro hagati ya Leta ya Congo n’ihuriro rya AFC/M23. Ku mpapuro, ibyo byombi byatangaga icyizere ko intambara ishobora kugabanyuka cyangwa igahagarara buhoro buhoro.
Ariko ku rubuga rw’imirwano, ukuri kuratandukanye. Imirwano irakomeje mu bice bitandukanye bya Kivu ya Ruguru na Kivu y’Amajyepfo, impande zose zikomeje gushinjanya kurenga ku gahenge.
Loni iherutse gutanga umuburo ko umutekano ukomeje kuzamba, ndetse ko hari gukoreshwa intwaro ziremereye na drones, bikaba byongera ubukana bw’intambara n’ingaruka ku baturage.
Ese hari uburyo buhamye bwo gutuma ayo masezerano ava mu byumba by’abadipolomate akagera ku rubuga rw’imirwano?
Washington na Doha: Inzira ebyiri z’amahoro, ariko zitarahuza n’ukuri kuri ku kibuga
Ubu hari inzira ebyiri zigaragara mu gushaka umuti w’iki kibazo. Uwa mbere ni uwa Washington, wibanda cyane ku mubano wa Leta ya Congo n’u Rwanda.
Muri Werurwe 2026, impande zombi zongeye guhurira i Washington, zemera intambwe zigamije kugabanya ubushyamirane, zirimo kubaha ubusugire bw’ibihugu, kugabanya ubushyamirane ku mipaka no gukomeza ibikorwa byo guhosha umwuka mubi.
Nyamara, amasezerano ya Washington agaragaza ko ikibazo nyamukuru hagati y’u Rwanda na Congo ari umutwe wa FDLR ugomba kubanza gusenywa mbere y’uko u Rwanda rukuraho ingamba z’ubwirinzi. Ibikorwa byo gusenya uwo mutwe ntibiratanga icyizere gihagije, nubwo Kinshasa ivuga ko byatangiye.
Inzira ya kabiri ni iya Doha, yibanda ku biganiro hagati ya Kinshasa na AFC/M23. Mu ntangiriro za Gashyantare 2026, impande zombi zasinye amabwiriza ngenderwaho agamije gushyira mu bikorwa uburyo bwo gukurikirana no kugenzura agahenge.
Komisiyo y’Umuryango wa Afurika Yunze Ubumwe (AU) ndetse na MONUSCO byabyakiriye neza, bigaragaza ko ari intambwe ishobora gufasha mu kubaka amahoro.
Ariko ikibazo si uko ayo masezerano atabaho cyangwa ngo adashyirweho umukono; ikibazo ni uko ataragera ku rwego rwo kubahirizwa ku buryo bugaragara, bwizewe kandi buhoraho.
Impamvu nyamukuru: Urwego rushinzwe kugenzura agahenge ntirukora
Abasesenguzi benshi bahuriza ku kintu kimwe: agahenge ntikashobora kubaho igihe nta rwego rwigenga kandi rukora ruri ku butaka ngo ruvuge ukuri ku byabereye ku rugamba.
Inama y’Umutekano ya Loni yari yarasabye Umunyamabanga Mukuru gutanga isuzuma ry’aho uburyo bwo kugenzura iyubahirizwa ry’agahenge bugeze mu rwego rwa Doha.
Raporo y’akanama ka Loni gashinzwe amahoro n’umutekano ku Isi yagaragaje ko, nubwo hari intambwe zimwe zatewe, Kinshasa na M23 bakomeje gushinjanya kurenga ku gahenge.
Icyo gihe, MONUSCO yasabwaga gutegura uburyo bushobora kuyifasha gushyigikira ibikorwa byo kugenzura no kwemeza amakuru, cyane cyane mu duce dushyushye twa Kivu zombi.
Mu yandi magambo, nubwo ku rwego rwa dipolomasi bavuga ko hari “mécanisme” ishinzwe kugenzura iyubahirizwa ry’imirwano, ntiraratangira gukora mu buryo bugaragara. By’umwihariko, ntirirashobora: Gutahura aho imirwano yatangiriye, kugaragaza uwishe amasezerano no gutangaza ukuri ku gihe no gutuma habaho ingaruka zihuse ku wica agahenge.
Iyo ibyo bidahari, buri ruhande rwigumira mu mvugo yarwo: Kinshasa igashinja M23, M23 igashinja FARDC cyangwa Wazalendo n’abahuza bagasohora amatangazo, ariko ku rugamba ibintu bigakomeza nk’ibisanzwe.
Impamvu ya kabiri: Inyungu za gisirikare ziza imbere y’iza politiki
Mu Burasirazuba bwa Congo, intambara si amagambo gusa; ni no guhatanira igenzura ry’ahantu hafite akamaro—nk’imisozi, imipaka n’ahantu h’ingenzi ku rwego rwa gisirikare n’ubukungu.
Ni yo mpamvu, n’iyo habayeho agahenge ridafite ubugenzuzi, impande zose zikomeza gushaka uko aafata ahantu h’ingenzi, zahindura imirongo y’urugamba ndetse n’uko zarinda ibirindiro byazo no gukomeza kwiyubaka.
Ni yo mpamvu na nyuma y’amasezerano y’i Doha, ibikorwa bya gisirikare bitahagaze. Raporo y’akanama ka Loni yagaragaje ko impande zombi zakomeje gushinjanya ibitero, harimo n’ibikorwa byifashisha drones.
Loni hamwe n’indi miryango yigenga byemeje ko intambara ikomeje kandi irushaho gukomera, nubwo ku rwego rwa dipolomasi hari ibiganiro byo kuyihagarika.
Ibi bisobanura ko mu gihe dipolomasi ivuga guhagarika imirwano, abari ku rugamba baba bakibaza uzasigara afite inyungu z’ingenzi ku meza y’ibiganiro. Aho ni ho amasezerano akenshi atsindirwa.
Impamvu ya gatatu: Intambara irimo abakinnyi benshi
Ikindi gituma agahenge kagorana ni uko intambara yo mu Burasirazuba bwa Congo itakiri iya FARDC na M23 gusa. Ni urubuga ruriho: FARDC, AFC/M23, Wazalendo, FDLR, Ingabo z’u Burundi n’ibindi bihugu bifite inyungu mu bucuruzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro.
Iyo harimo abakinnyi benshi gutyo, biragorana: Kumenya uwishe agahenge, kugenzura ibice byose no gutuma buri mutwe wemera amabwiriza amwe.
Ni yo mpamvu amasezerano ashobora gusinywa hagati y’impande ebyiri, ariko ku butaka ibikorwa by’urugomo bigakomeza kubera abandi bakinnyi batagengwa neza n’ayo masezerano.
Impamvu ya kane: Nta gihano gihita gikurikira uwishe agahenge
Amasezerano yose akenera ibintu bibiri: kugenzura no guhana. Iyo uwarenze ku gahenge adahanwe, agahenge gahita guta agaciro kuva ku munsi wa mbere.
Iyo igihano kidahujwe n’ubugenzuzi buhoraho ku butaka, ntacyo kiba kimaze.
Icyo amahoro nyayo asaba: Kuva ku “itangazo” kujya ku “ishyirwa mu bikorwa”
Niba Washington na Doha bishaka ko agahenge kubahirizwa, hari ibintu bine by’ingenzi bigomba gukorwa:
1. Gushyiraho uburyo bwigenga kandi buhoraho bwo kugenzura agahenge mu duce turimo intambara, harimo abagenzuzi n’uburyo bwo gutangaza raporo ku gihe.
2. Gushyiraho uburyo bwumvikanyweho bwo guhana uwishe amasezerano, yaba ari Leta, AFC/M23 cyangwa undi mukinnyi wese.
3. Guhuza neza inzira ya Washington n’iya Doha, ku buryo ikibazo cya Kigali–Kinshasa kitaba gitandukanye n’icya Kinshasa–AFC/M23.
4. Kugarura icyizere cy’abaturage. Amahoro apimwa n’uko: Amasasu yagabanutse, abaturage basubira iwabo, imihanda yafunguwe, ubufasha bugera aho bwari bwarabujijwe.
Mu Burasirazuba bwa Congo, ikibazo si uko amahanga atakivuga ku mahoro, si uko ibiganiro bitabaho, cyangwa ngo amasezerano atandikwa. Ikibazo nyamukuru ni uko amahoro acyubakwa nk’itangazo rya dipolomasi mbere yo kubakwa ku kibuga cy’imirwano.
Washington ishobora gutanga icyizere ku rwego rw’ibihugu, na Doha igatanga inzira y’ibiganiro hagati ya Leta ya Congo na AFC/M23. Ariko igihe cyose nta bugenzuzi bwigenga, bufatika kandi buhoraho buhari, guhagarika imirwano bizakomeza kuba intsinzi y’amagambo kurusha intsinzi y’amahoro.
Mu Burasirazuba bwa Congo, agahenge ntikabura ku mpapuro; kabura ku rugamba. Kandi igihe cyose Washington na Doha bitazashyira imbere uburyo bwo kugenzura no guhatira impande zose kubahiriza ibyo zasinyiye, amahoro azakomeza kuba inkuru nziza mu matangazo, ariko ntabe ukuri ku rugamba.
