Saudi Arabia, Turukiya na Pakistan bishyize hamwe mu masezerano y’ubwirinzi. Iran ntiyatinye, ahubwo yavuze ko ishobora kuba intambwe igana ku mutekano w’akarere. Ariko inyuma y’aya magambo hari impinduka zikomeye mu mbaraga za geopolitiki.
Ku wa 7 Kanama 2026, i Mecca muri Saudi Arabia, hashyizwe umukono ku masezerano y’ubwirinzi ahuza Saudi Arabia, Turukiya na Pakistan.
Reuters itangaza ko amasezerano avuga ko igitero cyitwaje intwaro kuri kimwe muri ibi bihugu kizafatwa nk’igitero kuri byose.
Ni amasezerano asa n’ihame ry’ingingo ya 5 ya NATO, nubwo atari NATO nshya kandi nta ngingo isobanura ko buri gihugu kigomba guhita cyohereza ingabo mu ntambara igihe kimwe muri byo gitewe.
Ariko ubutumwa bwa politiki burakomeye: Saudi Arabia, Turukiya na Pakistan bashaka kugira ijambo ryabo ku mutekano w’akarere.
Kuki uku kwihuza kuje ubu?
Ukwihuza kuje nyuma y’ibihe by’imvururu zikomeye mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, aho ibihugu byinshi by’Abarabu byabonye ko kwishingikiriza ku nkunga y’umutekano ya Amerika byonyine bishobora kuba bidahagije.
Saudi Arabia ni igihugu gifite ubushobozi bukomeye mu bukungu n’ingufu, Turukiya ifite ingabo zikomeye muri NATO kandi ifite ubunararibonye mu ntwaro zigezweho nka drones mu karere mu gihe Pakistan yo ifite igisirikare gikomeye kandi ikaba igihugu cya mbere cy’Abayisilamu gifite intwaro za kirimbuzi.
Iyo bushobozi butatu bushyizwe hamwe, haboneka ubufatanye budasanzwe bw’amafaranga, ingabo, ikoranabuhanga rya gisirikare n’ubushobozi bwa kirimbuzi.
Ese Iran yaba ariyo igambirriwe?
Ku mpapuro siko biteye kuko Turukiya yavuze ku mugaragaro ko aya masezerano atagambiriye Iran cyangwa ikindi gihugu runaka nkuko Al Jazeera yabitangaje.
Ariko geopolitiki ntabwo ireba gusa ibyo abayobozi bavuga; ireba n’ibyo ibikorwa byabo bishobora kuvuga.
Iran iri mu bihugu bifite ubushobozi bukomeye bwa gisirikare mu karere, kandi Saudi Arabia na Iran bamaze imyaka myinshi bahanganye ku rwego rwa geopolitiki.
Ni yo mpamvu abakurikiranira hafi Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati babona ko uku kwishyirahamwe gushobora kugira uruhare mu gukumira Iran cyangwa Israel kuba ari byo bihugu byigenga cyane ku mutekano w’akarere.
Tehran ntiyigeze igira ubwoba bwinshi
Ku wa 10 Kanama, Minisiteri y’Ububanyi n’Amahanga ya Iran yavuze ko nta mpamvu ibona yo gutinya iri tsinda rishya.
Tehran ahubwo yavuze ko ubufatanye bw’ibihugu byo mu karere bushobora kugira akamaro niba bukubiyemo ibihugu byose kandi bukubakira ku bibazo nyakuri by’umutekano w’akarere.
Ibi bishobora kuba ubutumwa bubiri.
Ubwa mbere, Iran ishobora kuba ishaka kwirinda guha iri tsinda isura y’umwanzi wayo.
Ubwa kabiri, Tehran ishobora kuba ibona ko itsinda ubwaryo ari ikimenyetso cy’uko Amerika itakiri yonyine ishobora kugena igishushanyo cy’umutekano wo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Ikibazo gikomeye: Iran iramutse iteye Saudi Arabia, bizagenda bite?
Aha ni ho aya masezerano azageragezwa bwa mbere.
Niba Iran irashe misile cyangwa ikagaba igitero gikomeye kuri Saudi Arabia, ikibazo ntikizaba kikiri hagati ya Riyadh na Tehran gusa.
Turukiya na Pakistan byazaba bifite inshingano zo gusubiza ikibazo cy’igitero kuri mugenzi wabo. Ariko ibi ntibivuze ko Turukiya na Pakistan byahita birasa kuri Iran.
Bishobora gutanga radar n’ubutasi, kurinda ikirere, kohereza intwaro, gufasha mu bikoresho cyangwa gufata izindi ngamba za gisirikare.
Uko igisubizo cyaba kingana byaterwa n’uburyo igitero cyabaye ndetse n’ibyemezo bya politiki by’abayobozi.
Ni ukuvuga ko ubu bwisungane bushobora kuba bugamije cyane gutera ubwoba ushaka gutera undi kurusha gutegura intambara.
Ariko hari undi mukinnyi udashobora kwirengagizwa: Israel
Nubwo amasezerano atavuga Israel nk’umwanzi, impinduka zayo zishobora kugira ingaruka ku mibanire ya Israel n’ibihugu by’akarere.
Israel yari imaze imyaka ishaka kwagura umubano n’ibihugu by’Abarabu, cyane cyane binyuze mu nzira yatangijwe na Abraham Accords.
Ariko niba Saudi Arabia itangiye kubaka umutekano wayo ishingiye cyane kuri Turukiya na Pakistan, bishobora guhindura uburyo Riyadh ibona umubano w’umutekano na Israel.
Ni yo mpamvu iri tsinda ridakwiye kurebwa gusa nk’amasezerano ya gisirikare. Ni igikoresho cya politiki gishobora guhindura ingano z’imbaraga mu karere.
Amerika yo ibibona ite?
Washington iracyafite ingabo, ibirindiro n’ubufatanye bukomeye n’ibihugu byo mu Kigobe, ariko ubu bwisungane bwerekana ko Saudi Arabia n’abandi bafatanyabikorwa bayo bashaka kugira andi mahitamo.
Si ukuvuga ko Riyadh ihise itera umugongo Amerika, ahubwo ubutumwa bushobora kuba bugaragaza ko bagikeneye Amerika, ariko ntibagishaka kuyishingiraho yonyine.
Ubu bufatanye ni bumwe mu mpamvu z’ingenzi zituma aya masezerano ya Mecca ashobora kugira ingaruka zirenga cyane ibyo amasezerano ubwayo ateganya.
Pakistan: umwihariko ukomeye
Hari ikintu gituma Pakistan iba umukinnyi udasanzwe muri iri tsinda: intwaro za kirimbuzi.
Pakistan ni cyo gihugu cyonyine muri iri tsinda rya batatu rifite itwaro za kirimbuzi.
Ariko ibi ntibisobanura ko Saudi Arabia ihise ibona umutaka wa kirimbuzi ( “nuclear umbrella)” wa Pakistan.
Imiterere nyayo y’ubufatanye ku ntwaro za kirimbuzi ntabwo washyizwe ahagaragara ku buryo bwemeza ko Pakistan yaba yarasezeranyije Saudi Arabia gukoresha izo ntwaro mu gihe cy’intambara.
Icyo bitanga, ariko, ni ubutumwa bwo kugaragaza imbaraga mu karere ( Geo strategic).
Turukiya nayo izanye ikindi kintu
Turukiya ni igihugu gifite ingabo zikomeye cyane kandi gifite uburambe mu bikorwa bya gisirikare muri Syria, Iraq, Libya n’ahandi.
Kuba Ankara iri muriri tsinda bivuze ko Saudi Arabia itabona gusa ubufasha bwa Pakistan; ibona n’umufatanyabikorwa ufite ubushobozi bwo gukora operasiyo mu karere no mu kirere.
Muri macye Saudi Arabia bivuze amafaranga n’ingufu, Turukiya ingabo, drones n’ikoranabuhanga naho Pakistan bikavuga ingabo n’ubuhanga bwa kirimbuzi.
Niba ihuriro rishobora kugira uburemere bukomeye mu kubuza undi mukinnyi gutera umwe muri bo, ese rizahagarika Iran?
Niba intego ari ugutera ubwoba Iran kugira ngo itazongera gutera ibihugu byo mu Kigobe, ihuriro rishobora gukora.
Ariko niba ikibazo ari ugushaka gutsinda Iran mu ntambara, ibintu byadogera cyane.
Iran ifite ubuso bunini, abaturage benshi, missiles nyinshi, drones, ndetse n’ubushobozi bwo gukoresha imitwe iyishyigikiye mu bihugu bitandukanye byo mu karere.
Ni yo mpamvu intambara hagati ya Iran n’iri huriro ( Alliance) rishobora kuvamo intambara yakwaguka cyane, aho Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon n’Ikigobe byose bishobora kugira uruhare.
Umukino mushya waba utangiye
Ikintu gikomeye cyane si uko Turukiya, Saudi Arabia na Pakistan byabonye gusa amasezerano mashya.
Ni uko Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati bushobora kuba butangiye kuva mu buryo bumwe bw’umutekano bwo kurindwa n’Amerika, ahubwo bujya mu bundi bwo kwigira.
Mbere hari itsinda ry’Amerika, Israel n’Ikigobe cya Peresi cyayobokaga.
Ubu hatangiye kugaragara indi nzira irimo Saudi Arabia, Turukiya na Pakistan bishobora kuziyongeraho n’abandi.
Hagati aho, Iran izakomeza kubaka umubano n’Uburusiya n’u Bushinwa, mu gihe Israel izakomeza kwishingikiriza ku bufatanye bukomeye na Amerika.
Bityo ikibazo cy’ejo hazaza twakwibaza ni igihe Iran izaba iteye umwe mu bagize iri tsinda rishya, ni iki kizabaho kandi ni nde uzahitamo gusubiza?
Kuko icyo gihe amasezerano yasinyiwe i Mecca azava ku mpapuro, ajye mu muriro w’intambara.
Kandi icyo gihe ni bwo isi izamenya niba Amasezerano ya Mecca ari ingabo zo gukumira intambara, cyangwa ari intangiriro y’undi murongo mushya w’amakimbirane mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
