Mu gihe abarwanyi ba Houthis bakomeje kongera ibitero ku bikorwa remezo bya Saudi Arabia no ku nyungu zayo mu Nyanja Itukura, mu isesengura rikorwa n’abahanga mu bya politiki mpuzamahanga rivuga ko intego yabo itari uguhangana na Riyadh gusa, ahubwo ari no kugerageza kuyitandukanya n’ibihugu bishobora kuyifasha.
Mu ntambara zo mu rwego rwa geopolitiki, gutera umwanzi si cyo gihe cyose kiba intego nyamukuru. Hari ubwo intego iba iyo kumubuza kubona abafatanyabikorwa, kumushyira mu bwigunge no kumuhatira kurwana ari wenyine.
Ibi ni byo Mahmoud Shahrani, impuguke muri Middle East and North Africa muri Chatham House, yagarutseho mu isesengura ry’ibikorwa bya Houthis muri Yemen.
Nk’uko byatangajwe na Al Jazeera, Shahrani yavuze ko Houthis bagerageza gusenya abanzi babo no kwirinda ko amakimbirane yaguka akaba intambara ihuza impande nyinshi.
Yagaragaje ko kuburira ibihugu nka Türkiye na Pakistan kutagira uruhare mu gushyigikira Saudi Arabia bishobora kuba mu murongo wo gutandukanya Riyadh na bamwe mu bafatanyabikorwa bayo.
Intego si Saudi Arabia gusa, ahubwo ni umuyoboro wayo w’ubufasha
Iyo turebye aya mayeri mu ndorerwamo ya geopolitiki, Houthis baba bafite ikibazo gikomeye Saudi Arabia iramutse ibonye abafatanyabikorwa benshi bashobora gutanga inkunga mu by’ubutasi, kurinda ikirere, kurinda ubwikorezi bwo mu Nyanja Itukura cyangwa no gutanga ubushobozi bwa gisirikare.
Ni yo mpamvu guhangana na Saudi Arabia bishobora kujyana no gutanga igitutu ku bihugu bishobora kwinjira muri iyo ntambara.
Muri uyu murongo, Türkiye na Pakistan ni ingenzi cyane.
Saudi Arabia, Türkiye na Pakistan basinye muri Kanama 2026 amasezerano y’ubufatanye mu by’umutekano n’ubwirinzi azwi nka Makkah Joint Defence Agreement.
Amasezerano ateganya ko igitero cyagabwe kuri kimwe muri ibyo bihugu gifatwa nk’igitero ku bindi, nubwo uburyo azashyirwa mu bikorwa n’urwego rw’uruhare rwa gisirikare bikiri ikibazo gikomeye cyo kureba.
Ibi bituma Houthis bahura n’ikibazo cyo kurwana na Saudi Arabia ishobora kuba ifite imibare yo kwirwanaho irenze iya mbere.
Mu mboni zanjye na none, ikibazo gikomeye ni ukumenya niba Türkiye cyangwa Pakistan byemera kujya mu ntambara itaziguye na Houthis.
Kuki Houthis bashaka ko Türkiye na Pakistan biguma hanze?
Igisubizo gishobora kuboneka mu ihame ryo kugenzura uburyo bw’umwuka mubi w’intambara wazamutse.
Iyo igihugu gito cyangwa umutwe witwaje intwaro uhanganye n’igihugu gifite ubushobozi burenze, ushobora kugerageza kubuza intambara kwaguka.
Ni ukuvuga ngo Saudi Arabia, Türkiye na Pakistan bishobora guhita bibyara ikibazo kinini kurusha Saudi Arabia yari yonyine.
Houthis rero bashobora gushaka ko amakimbirane aguma hagati yabo na Riyadh, aho gutuma aba ikibazo cy’ihuriro ry’ibihugu byinshi.
Ibi bishobora gusobanurwa nk’uburyo bwo kumena ihuriro mbere y’uko ryivanga mu kibuga cy’intambara.
Isesengura ryatangajwe muri Kanama n’ikigo Critical Threats ryagaragaje ko Saudi Arabia yari imaze gushyiraho ihuriro ry’ibihugu 14 rigamije umutekano w’ubwikorezi bwo mu Nyanja Itukura, harimo Türkiye, Pakistan, Misiri, Jordan, Qatar n’ibindi.
Houthis na bo bari baratangaje ko bashobora kongera ibitero ku mato ajyanye na Saudi Arabia ndetse n’umuvugizi wabo akavuga ko bashobora kugera ku rwego rwo kuyitandukanya n’abandi.
Bab el-Mandeb: intwaro ya geopolitiki
Ikindi gikomeye muri iyi ntambara ni Bab el-Mandeb.
Uyu mwanya w’amazi uhuza Inyanja Itukura na Gulf of Aden ni ingenzi cyane ku bucuruzi mpuzamahanga no ku mutekano w’ibihugu byo mu karere.
Mu gihe Houthis bakomeza gushyira igitutu ku bwikorezi bwo muri aka karere, ntabwo baba bakubise Saudi Arabia gusa.
Baba bakoze k’umutekano w’ubukungu bw’isi, ku mutekano w’ingendo zo mu nyanja ndetse no ku bushobozi bwa Riyadh bwo gukoresha Inyanja Itukura nk’umuyoboro w’ubukungu n’ububanyi n’amahanga.
Ni yo mpamvu ikibazo cya Yemen cyarenze kuba intambara y’imbere mu gihugu, ahubwo cyahindutse kimwe mu bibuga by’ihangana hagati ya Saudi Arabia, Iran, Houthis n’abandi bafatanyabikorwa mpuzamahanga.
Iran iri he muri iyi mibare?
Houthis bakunze gusobanurwa nk’umutwe ushyigikiwe na Iran.
Hari ibimenyetso mpuzamahanga byerekana umubano wa gisirikare n’ubufasha hagati ya Iran na Houthis, ariko isesengura ry’abahanga rigaragaza ko bidakwiye guhita bisobanurwa nk’aho Houthis ari umutwe ukora buri kintu utegetswe na Tehran.
Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, mu isesengura ryayo ku gusubukura intambara muri Yemen, yagaragaje ko hari impamvu zituma ibikorwa bya Houthis bishobora gusobanurwa no mu rwego rw’inyungu zabo bwite, harimo gushaka guhatira Saudi Arabia kuganira no kugera ku masezerano.
Ibi bitanga isomo rikomeye rya geopolitiki:
Umufatanyabikorwa ashobora kugira inyungu zihuye n’iz’undi, ariko ibyo ntibivuze ko inyungu zabo zose ari zimwe.
Ni ukuvuga ko Tehran na Houthis bashobora kugira umwanzi bahuriyeho, ariko buri ruhande rukagira imibare yarwo.
Saudi Arabia na yo iri kubaka ihuriro ryayo.
Ku rundi ruhande, Saudi Arabia ntabwo iri kureba ibintu gusa.
Riyadh yashatse kubaka uburyo bwo kurinda inyungu zayo mu Nyanja Itukura binyuze mu ihuriro ry’ibihugu byinshi.
Muri Nyakanga 2026, Saudi Arabia yatangaje ko hashyizweho ihuriro ry’ibihugu 14 rigamije kurinda ubwikorezi bwo mu Nyanja Itukura, aho Türkiye, Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar n’ibindi bihugu biri muri uwo murongo.
Ibi bituma intambara iba nk’umukino w’impande ebyiri:
Houthis: gukomeza igititu, gutera Saudi Arabia, kubuza intambara kwaguka, no gutandukanya Riyadh n’abafatanyabikorwa bayo.
Saudi Arabia: gukomeza igititu kuba Houthis, kubaka ihuriro, gushaka inyungu z’umutekano no kurinda inzira z’ubwikorezi n’ibikorwa remezo byayo.
Intambara ishobora kuba iyo kwihangana kurusha iyo gutsinda vuba
Ikibazo gikomeye kuri Saudi Arabia ni uko gukoresha imbaraga nyinshi mu buryo butagenzuwe bishobora gutuma intambara irushaho kwaguka.
Ku rundi ruhande, kudasubiza bihagije bishobora gutuma Houthis babona ko amayeri yabo yo gushyira Riyadh ku gitutu ari gukora.
Ni yo mpamvu Riyadh ishobora kuba iri hagati y’ibintu bibiri: Kuzamura umwuka w’intambara: kongera igitutu cya gisirikare kugira ngo Houthis bacike intege cyangwa se kwerekana ko Saudi Arabia ifite ubushobozi bwo gusubiza, ariko ikirinda intambara nini ishobora gutuma abandi bakinnyi binjira.
Abasesenguzi bo mu karere na bo bagaragaje ko ikibazo atari ugutsinda Houthis mu buryo bwa gisirikare gusa, ahubwo ari ukumenya niba amasezerano y’umutekano Saudi Arabia iri kubaka ashobora guhinduka ubushobozi nyabwo bwo kwirinda no gutera ubwoba abashaka kuyishotora.
Umukino uri hagati y’ihuriro n’akato
Mu mboni za geopolitiki, iyi ntambara ishobora gusobanurwa nk’umukino wo guhatanira ihuriro ry’imbaraga.
Saudi Arabia irashaka kugira abantu benshi bari ku ruhande rwayo.
Houthis bo, nk’uko Shahrani abivuga, bashobora kuba bashaka ko abo bafatanyabikorwa batagira uruhare rutaziguye.
Ni ukuvuga ko intambara itakiri Houthis na Saudi Arabia, ahubwo iri kugenda ihinduka Houthis, Saudi Arabia ndetse n’ikibazo cyo kumenya niba ihuriro rya Riyadh atari baringa.
Kandi aha ni ho ibintu bishobora kurushaho gukomera.
Niba Saudi Arabia ibasha gukomeza Türkiye, Pakistan, Egypt n’abandi mu murongo umwe, Houthis bashobora guhura n’umuyoboro mugari w’ubushobozi.
Ariko niba ibihugu bigize iryo huriro ritabona inyungu zimwe mu kujya mu ntambara, Houthis bashobora kubona umwanya wo gukomeza politike yo gutandukanya Saudi Arabia n’abayifasha.
Mu mboni zanjye: uwatsinze si uwarashe ibisasu byinshi gusa
Yemen iri kutwigisha ko mu ntambara za geopolitiki imbaraga zitapimirwa ku ntwaro gusa ahubwo zishobora no gupimirwa m’ubushobozi bwo kubaka ihuriro, kubuza umwanzi kuryubaka, kumushyira ku gitutu cy’ubukungu no kumuhatira kuganira.
Houthis rero bashobora kuba badashyize imbere gutsinda Saudi Arabia mu buryo bwa gisirikare bwuzuye, ahubwo bakaba bashobora kuba bashaka ikintu gishobora kuba gifite agaciro kuri bo aricyo guhindura ibiciro Saudi Arabia yishyura, kuyigumisha kugarira gusa, no kugabanya umubare w’abafatanyabikorwa bashobora kuyinjirira mu ntambara.
Iyo amayeri ya geopolitike yaguhiriye, umwanzi ashobora kuba afite indege, missiles n’amafaranga menshi, ariko akagira ikibazo cyo kubona urubuga rwa politike rwo gukoresha izo mbaraga.
Ni yo mpamvu ikibazo gikomeye mu cyiciro gikurikira cy’intambara ya Yemen atari gusa kumenya niba Houthis bazongera kurasa kuri Saudi Arabia.
Ni ukureba niba Riyadh izashobora gukomeza itsinda ryayo mbere y’uko Houthis bayisenya mu rwego rwa politiki n’ububanyi n’amahanga.
