In the first part, we explored the origins of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, focusing on the events leading up to 2014. In this concluding part, we delve into President Putin’s long-term preparations for the war and the strategic moves that set the stage for the 2022 invasion.
Strategic Preparations and Energy Politics
In 2015, as the conflict persisted in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, NATO and the European Union were increasingly engaging with Kyiv. In response, President Vladimir Putin initiated the construction of a new gas pipeline through the Black Sea to Turkey, aiming to supply Europe while bypassing Ukraine. This move deprived Ukraine of significant transit fees. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed the project due to its benefits for Turkey.
By 2018, Putin launched another project, Nord Stream 2, connecting Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. German Chancellor Angela Merkel supported the initiative, anticipating affordable gas for German industries and potential exports to other European countries. These projects, along with the construction of the Crimea Bridge, were part of Putin’s broader strategy to prepare for a significant conflict, perceiving NATO’s eastward expansion as a direct threat to Moscow.
Escalation of Tensions
Since 2003, Moscow and Kyiv had an agreement on the use of the Sea of Azov, adjacent to Mariupol and Crimea. However, in 2018, Russia unilaterally annulled the agreement, requiring Ukrainian ships to seek permission to access the sea. That year, Russia seized three Ukrainian military vessels attempting to enter the Sea of Azov, accusing them of violating maritime laws.
In 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine, promising to end the war. He showed willingness to engage in dialogue with Putin, leading to the return of the three seized naval vessels. Despite ongoing communications, Zelensky continued to pursue NATO membership, a move Putin considered crossing a red line. By 2021, Russia amassed troops along Ukraine’s border and stationed forces in Belarus, warning NATO against admitting Ukraine.
The 2022 Invasion and Its Aftermath
On February 24, 2022, Putin announced a “special military operation” to “denazify” Ukraine. Russian forces invaded from the east (Donetsk and Luhansk), south (Kherson), and north (via Belarus towards Kyiv). The initial plan aimed to swiftly capture Kyiv, detain or eliminate President Zelensky, and install a pro-Russian government.
International Sanctions and Economic Impacts
Western countries imposed severe sanctions on Russian oil and gas. The EU, USA, Canada, Japan, and South Korea closed their airspace to Russian aircraft and implemented economic sanctions. Despite these measures, Russia had prepared by diversifying its energy exports to Europe, Asia, China, Mongolia, and India, mitigating the sanctions’ impact.
President Zelensky continued to advocate for Ukraine’s NATO membership, but the alliance refrained from admitting Ukraine to avoid escalating the conflict into a nuclear confrontation with Russia.
Territorial Gains and Internal Strife
Russia has occupied significant portions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions, along with Crimea, annexed in 2014. The city of Bakhmut became a focal point of intense fighting, highlighting the role of the Wagner Group led by Dmitry Prigozhin. However, disagreements with Putin over heavy casualties led Prigozhin to rebel and march towards Moscow. His journey ended abruptly with a controversial plane crash en route to Saint Petersburg.
Ukraine’s Counteroffensives and Political Dynamics
In 2024, Ukraine launched significant attacks in the Kursk region of Russia to strengthen its position in potential peace negotiations. Despite holding the area for a year, Russian forces reclaimed it in early 2025.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed intentions to end the war swiftly if re-elected, proposing a peace plan involving resource extraction agreements in Ukraine and recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. He also suggested a $500 billion aid package for Ukraine’s reconstruction, contingent on Ukraine not joining NATO.
Casualties and Humanitarian Impact
Estimates suggest that Russian military casualties approach 1 million, with approximately 250,000 fatalities. Ukraine has suffered around 46,000 military deaths and 300,000 injuries. The United Nations reports that about 10 million Ukrainians have fled the country, creating a significant refugee crisis in Europe.
Peace Negotiations and Stalemate
Russia demands recognition of its control over Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea, along with assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO. Ukraine insists on the return of all occupied territories and seeks security guarantees, including potential NATO membership. President Trump proposes a compromise involving economic agreements and reconstruction aid, but the core issues remain unresolved.
Conclusion
The Russia-Ukraine war, rooted in complex historical, political, and strategic factors, continues to have profound implications for regional and global stability. Despite various diplomatic efforts, a lasting resolution remains elusive, with both sides holding firm to their respective demands.
